With the way mortgage rates are going and the current level of inflation, you’re not alone in simply trying to make ends meet. The question – should I sell my house now? – has likely crossed your mind. It’s a seller’s market after all and the large influx of cash would be good for anyone, be it to buy new property or simply to take care of outstanding debts.
On the other hand, rent prices are skyrocketing across the US. So, if you are forced to rent, how long will the money last you? Is it better to wait and hope the economy turns around? Maybe you see how home prices are rising and think you could do better in a year or so? But will the housing market crash in 2023? All of these are valid questions and deliberations.
In short, there is no uniform answer to the question should I sell my house now? It depends on your specific circumstances. However, this article will try to answer the questions posed above and explain everything you should factor in before making your decision.
Before we get to experts’ opinions, let's explore what regular US citizens think on the topic. Fannie Mae conducts monthly surveys to calculate the Home Purchase Sentiment Index. According to the relevant data from September:
59% of respondents believe it is currently a good time to sell a house;
35% of respondents believe that housing prices will go down in the next 12 months.
Consequently, if you were to ask Americans – is it a good time to sell a house?, most would respond with – yes. But, the second number is more interesting. 35% of respondents believe that home prices will go down in the next 12 months, as opposed to 32% that believe they will go up.
This is the first time since the start of the pandemic in 2020 and then in 2011 before that, that more people than not believe prices will decline. This expectation likely influences the opinion that now is a good time to sell a house.
In summary, 59% of Americans believe 2022 is a good time to sell property, partially driven by the expectation that prices will decline in the next 12 months.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) aggregates nationwide statistics and calculates monthly median prices for existing-home sales and the number of homes sold, among other data. The latest set of data, from August 2022, shows that:
Existing-home sales decreased by 0.4% from July to August 2022;
Existing-home sales decreased by 19.9% from 2021;
The median price increased by 7.7% from August of 2021 to $389,500;
The median sales price declined from June of 2022 (when it reached $413,800).
That fewer and fewer houses are being sold, both on a monthly and yearly level, likely due to low inventory and rising interest rates. Additionally, home prices continue to rise year-over-year (August was the 126th month of consecutive year-over-year sale price increases, which is the longest streak in US history).
On the other hand, the median sale price declined from $413,800 in June to $389,500 in August, so prices have dipped. However, this is likely because early summer is the peak season for selling real estate and prices tend to drop in the later seasons.
Consequently, the two-month drop in prices should not be taken as an indicator (at the very least, not a major one) of a price-dropping trend that will continue year-over-year. That being said, if you intend to sell your house but are unsure if you can wait until 2023’s peak season, now is the right time to sell your house.
More than likely, prices will continue to cool as winter approaches because that is a regular seasonal trend.
What Are Experts’ Forecasts for 2023?
Redfin’s chief economist Daryl Fairweather gave an interview for the Escape Home on September 14, where she was asked to give a prediction for the next 6 months. Here is her answer in full:
“It really depends on the course of the economy. If inflation is persistent and the Fed has to continue to raise interest rates to fight it even more than they’re planning now, then interest rates will go up and the housing market will suffer. If inflation starts to subside and the Fed can back off when it comes to interest rate increases, then I think things will probably flatten out and we will have home values basically at the same level they were last year going into 2023. If we’re in a recession — if it’s a mild recession I think it will be the same scenario because interest rates will go down which will prompt some people to buy homes, at the same time the recession itself will cool demand so I think it will be kind of a wash. If we have a severe recession then I think the housing market could see prices decline by 5%.”
In short, Redfin’s chief economist believes that prices will likely either stay the same or decline going into 2023.
Zillow conducts quarterly Home Price Inspection Surveys, where it asks economists and housing experts for real estate market predictions. In the latest survey, 107 experts were polled. Their opinions are somewhat similar to Daryl Fairweather’s.
All 107 respondents expect home price deceleration in 2023 (in other words, that home prices will not continue to rise at the rate they have been rising in the previous few years). Further, 56% of the respondents believe that there will be shifts in the housing market in buyers’ favor in 2023.
So will the housing market crash in 2023? Neither Redfin’s nor Zillow’s experts have stated that they foresee a market crash in 2023. However, they do predict that the housing market will not be as favorable for sellers as it was this year.
We’ve provided you with data on peoples’ expectations and beliefs, the real estate trends of this and previous years, and experts’ opinions. However, that still doesn’t paint the full picture and answer – should I sell my house now? For that, you need to consider your specific situation. Why do you wish to sell your house?
Are you unable to make your mortgage payments and are afraid you’ll be facing foreclosure? In that case, if you have exhausted your other options, your best choice is likely to sell. If it gets to the point that a bank forecloses on your house, you will probably get less money than you would have otherwise and your credit score will be extremely difficult to repair.
Are you relocating and need to purchase a new home in the next few months? Then right now is likely the best time to sell. Home prices will continue to decline in late fall and winter, as that is the standard seasonal trend. Thus, if you will be selling property relatively soon, it is best to make it now.
Are you in no rush to sell, just wish to make the highest profit? Maybe you wish to fix it up before you sell? Then you could wait for 2023. However, you’ve read the market predictions – while experts don’t expect a crash in 2023, they do not seem to be of the opinion that home prices will continue to rise as they have been up until now.
In essence, factor in your specific circumstances before you make a decision.
Finally, everything in this article has been about national trends and projections. That does not mean your local housing market will necessarily follow the same course. If you have a realtor you trust, ask them for their opinion on the matter so you can make an informed decision.
We can’t make the decision for you, but we can buy your house for the highest price when you do decide to sell. SleeveUp Homes will buy your home as-is for top dollar. You don’t need to make any repairs and we guarantee $10,000 more than any other offer you’ve received.
Because you are selling directly to us, you will not need to pay the closing costs or realtor commissions. And if you are in a hurry to sell, we can close in as little as 7 days. Request a no-obligation cash offer and see how much you can get for your home.
If you want to sell fast and are worried about how long the traditional process takes, and the commission and fees involved, consider working with SleeveUp Homes.